CME Bitcoin Futures Analysis: Open Interest at ATH and Gap Filled after Halving Blimp

The CME Bitcoin futures market seems to be on the edge of a bearish reversal. However, the massive increase in OI and golden cross could signal a continuation of the bullish momentum.

The OI of Bitcoin Futures on CME is currently $499 million, an All-Time High. The day of the halving saw significantly high trading volumes, Nevertheless, unlike the previous highs in open interest, it does not seem to be causing a reduction in Open Interest. As Bitcoin seems to be at the cusp of a parabolic trend, the Open Interest (OI) on CME futures has already seen a 2.5 fold increase in a fortnight.

Surprisingly, the high in the OI and volume seems to perfectly coinciding with the local tops on Bitcoin. On 26th June 2019 and February 14th 2020, it marked highs with a OI of $392 million and $329 million, respectively.

From the technical view, the price is currently forming at a golden cross between the 50 and 200-Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). It also bounced from support from the 200-Day Moving Average, now at $9395.

Bitcoin [BTC] price filled the massive $1,155 gap, recorded this weekend as the price dropped after topping at $10,220 prior to halving. A reversal at the edge of the gap could signal another bearish correction below $9000.

The monthly Bitcoin Futures price is presently in backwardation, with the July contracts are trading below June futures. This signals a lack of FOMO in the markets despite a 140% rise from lows in March. Nevertheless, it also indicates that traders are lacking confidence in the bull run and betting on a lower price in the short to medium term.


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